• Geometry Name: ______________________________ Experimental Probability Project Date: __________ Period: ________ Goal: To compare the experimental (observed) probabilities of a simple event, over the course of several trials, with the theoretical (expected) probabilities associated with that event.
A. Choose one of the simple experiments listed below and calculate the expected probability of each outcome.
• • Flipping a coin. •
• Rolling a die.
• • Spinning a spinner.
• • Drawing an object from a bag.
• • Other events (must be cleared by teacher).
B. Conduct 200 trials of your simple experiment, while recording your results, and answer the following questions. [35 points]
• After 20 Trials: What is the observed probability of each outcome after 20 trials? Explain any discrepancies between the observed and expected probabilities thus far.
• After 50 Trials: How has the observed probability of each outcome changed after 30 additional trials? Is it closer or farther away from the expected probability after 20 trials? Explain why you think the probabilities are closer or farther away from each other.
• After 100 Trials: What do you expect to happen to the experimental probability of each outcome as you continue the trails? Make a prediction of the final experimental probability for each outcome.
C. Create a histogram or bar graph to display the results of your experiment after all 200 trials. [15 points]
The graphs should include:
• A title.
• Appropriate labels for the ?- and ?-axes. • Appropriate scales for the ?- and ?-axes.
• Accurate bars to illustrate your findings.
D. Write a one-page (minimum) report on your findings. [50 points] The report should include: •
An opening paragraph to explain the experiment, the expected probabilities associated with each outcome, and any hypotheses that you may have had pre-experiment.
• Three or more body paragraphs to describe your findings throughout the experiment.
• A conclusion paragraph to explain what you learned and how it applies to general probability.
Formatting the report: Double-spaced, 12-point font, 1-inch margins, and a single line heading that includes the title of the report and your name.
E. Completed project is due on or before the day of your exam (4th Period – June 3 rd |6th Period – June 2 nd).
Final project should include: •
Any papers associated with keeping track of raw data.
• Histogram or bar graph with results for all 200 trials of the experiment.
• Typed questions and answers to the experimental questions from above.
• Typed report.
For more information on Experimental Probability Project read this:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experiment_(probability_theory)
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